{"from":"2026-05-01","to":"2026-05-31","modelVersion":"v2.3.0","n":1333,"top1Accuracy":0.47561890472618157,"over25Accuracy":0.5453863465866466,"meanBrier1x2":0.6343707726598641,"meanBrierOver25":0.24921518746136526,"recentDays":[{"date":"2026-05-01","n":42,"top1Hits":26,"top1Accuracy":0.6190476190476191,"over25Accuracy":0.6428571428571429},{"date":"2026-05-02","n":130,"top1Hits":57,"top1Accuracy":0.43846153846153846,"over25Accuracy":0.5461538461538461},{"date":"2026-05-03","n":97,"top1Hits":44,"top1Accuracy":0.4536082474226804,"over25Accuracy":0.5463917525773195},{"date":"2026-05-04","n":31,"top1Hits":15,"top1Accuracy":0.4838709677419355,"over25Accuracy":0.5161290322580645},{"date":"2026-05-05","n":8,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":0.375,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-05-06","n":7,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.7142857142857143,"over25Accuracy":0.42857142857142855},{"date":"2026-05-07","n":8,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.75,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-05-08","n":48,"top1Hits":23,"top1Accuracy":0.4791666666666667,"over25Accuracy":0.4583333333333333},{"date":"2026-05-09","n":116,"top1Hits":57,"top1Accuracy":0.49137931034482757,"over25Accuracy":0.5517241379310345},{"date":"2026-05-10","n":89,"top1Hits":41,"top1Accuracy":0.4606741573033708,"over25Accuracy":0.5168539325842697},{"date":"2026-05-11","n":23,"top1Hits":7,"top1Accuracy":0.30434782608695654,"over25Accuracy":0.4782608695652174},{"date":"2026-05-12","n":24,"top1Hits":12,"top1Accuracy":0.5,"over25Accuracy":0.4583333333333333},{"date":"2026-05-13","n":36,"top1Hits":17,"top1Accuracy":0.4722222222222222,"over25Accuracy":0.6111111111111112},{"date":"2026-05-14","n":22,"top1Hits":14,"top1Accuracy":0.6363636363636364,"over25Accuracy":0.4090909090909091},{"date":"2026-05-15","n":28,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.4642857142857143,"over25Accuracy":0.35714285714285715},{"date":"2026-05-16","n":121,"top1Hits":61,"top1Accuracy":0.5041322314049587,"over25Accuracy":0.5371900826446281},{"date":"2026-05-17","n":139,"top1Hits":62,"top1Accuracy":0.4460431654676259,"over25Accuracy":0.6115107913669064},{"date":"2026-05-18","n":23,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.34782608695652173,"over25Accuracy":0.5217391304347826},{"date":"2026-05-19","n":19,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.42105263157894735,"over25Accuracy":0.5789473684210527},{"date":"2026-05-20","n":14,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.6428571428571429},{"date":"2026-05-21","n":16,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.5,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-05-22","n":23,"top1Hits":10,"top1Accuracy":0.43478260869565216,"over25Accuracy":0.6086956521739131},{"date":"2026-05-23","n":67,"top1Hits":32,"top1Accuracy":0.47761194029850745,"over25Accuracy":0.4626865671641791},{"date":"2026-05-24","n":81,"top1Hits":39,"top1Accuracy":0.48148148148148145,"over25Accuracy":0.6049382716049383},{"date":"2026-05-25","n":21,"top1Hits":9,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.3333333333333333},{"date":"2026-05-26","n":2,"top1Hits":1,"top1Accuracy":0.5,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-05-27","n":1,"top1Hits":1,"top1Accuracy":1,"over25Accuracy":0},{"date":"2026-05-28","n":3,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":1,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-05-29","n":18,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.4444444444444444,"over25Accuracy":0.6111111111111112},{"date":"2026-05-30","n":34,"top1Hits":19,"top1Accuracy":0.5588235294117647,"over25Accuracy":0.7352941176470589},{"date":"2026-05-31","n":42,"top1Hits":19,"top1Accuracy":0.4523809523809524,"over25Accuracy":0.5714285714285714}],"calibration":[{"label":"50–60%","minProb":0.5,"maxProb":0.6,"n":308,"hitRate":0.5162337662337663},{"label":"60–70%","minProb":0.6,"maxProb":0.7,"n":178,"hitRate":0.5730337078651685},{"label":"70%+","minProb":0.7,"maxProb":1.0001,"n":124,"hitRate":0.5725806451612904}],"yearMonth":"2026-05","label":"May 2026","pctModelMatchesImpliedFavorite":73.63636363636363,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeFavorite":0.7735294117647059,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeUpset":0.1625,"meanLogloss1x2Model":1.0547849624335892,"meanLogloss1x2Implied":0.9996951378135657,"citationSummary":"Beathem graded 1333 finished football fixtures in May 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 47.6%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 54.5%, mean Brier 1X2 0.634. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 57.3% across 178 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.","canonicalUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report/2026-05","indexUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report","methodologyUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/methodology","recordUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/predictions/record","note":"Calendar-month graded fixtures for the highest-volume model version. Research only; past performance does not guarantee future results."}