{"from":"2026-07-01","to":"2026-07-31","modelVersion":"v2.3.0","n":882,"top1Accuracy":0.4399092970521542,"over25Accuracy":0.6031746031746031,"meanBrier1x2":0.6621835855869609,"meanBrierOver25":0.24339087964070302,"recentDays":[{"date":"2026-07-01","n":32,"top1Hits":15,"top1Accuracy":0.46875,"over25Accuracy":0.5625},{"date":"2026-07-02","n":13,"top1Hits":7,"top1Accuracy":0.5384615384615384,"over25Accuracy":0.5384615384615384},{"date":"2026-07-03","n":36,"top1Hits":17,"top1Accuracy":0.4722222222222222,"over25Accuracy":0.5277777777777778},{"date":"2026-07-04","n":116,"top1Hits":51,"top1Accuracy":0.4396551724137931,"over25Accuracy":0.5603448275862069},{"date":"2026-07-05","n":29,"top1Hits":11,"top1Accuracy":0.3793103448275862,"over25Accuracy":0.7241379310344828},{"date":"2026-07-06","n":5,"top1Hits":0,"top1Accuracy":0,"over25Accuracy":0.6},{"date":"2026-07-07","n":23,"top1Hits":9,"top1Accuracy":0.391304347826087,"over25Accuracy":0.6956521739130435},{"date":"2026-07-08","n":29,"top1Hits":14,"top1Accuracy":0.4827586206896552,"over25Accuracy":0.5172413793103449},{"date":"2026-07-09","n":12,"top1Hits":4,"top1Accuracy":0.3333333333333333,"over25Accuracy":0.3333333333333333},{"date":"2026-07-10","n":9,"top1Hits":2,"top1Accuracy":0.2222222222222222,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-07-11","n":75,"top1Hits":35,"top1Accuracy":0.4666666666666667,"over25Accuracy":0.68},{"date":"2026-07-12","n":42,"top1Hits":21,"top1Accuracy":0.5,"over25Accuracy":0.7142857142857143},{"date":"2026-07-13","n":8,"top1Hits":1,"top1Accuracy":0.125,"over25Accuracy":0.625},{"date":"2026-07-14","n":22,"top1Hits":7,"top1Accuracy":0.3181818181818182,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-07-15","n":24,"top1Hits":14,"top1Accuracy":0.5833333333333334,"over25Accuracy":0.5833333333333334},{"date":"2026-07-16","n":16,"top1Hits":9,"top1Accuracy":0.5625,"over25Accuracy":0.5625},{"date":"2026-07-17","n":52,"top1Hits":24,"top1Accuracy":0.46153846153846156,"over25Accuracy":0.5384615384615384},{"date":"2026-07-18","n":86,"top1Hits":40,"top1Accuracy":0.46511627906976744,"over25Accuracy":0.6395348837209303},{"date":"2026-07-19","n":18,"top1Hits":11,"top1Accuracy":0.6111111111111112,"over25Accuracy":0.7222222222222222},{"date":"2026-07-20","n":12,"top1Hits":7,"top1Accuracy":0.5833333333333334,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-07-21","n":14,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.35714285714285715,"over25Accuracy":0.7857142857142857},{"date":"2026-07-22","n":20,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.65,"over25Accuracy":0.45},{"date":"2026-07-23","n":13,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.38461538461538464,"over25Accuracy":0.5384615384615384},{"date":"2026-07-24","n":16,"top1Hits":7,"top1Accuracy":0.4375,"over25Accuracy":0.5625},{"date":"2026-07-25","n":51,"top1Hits":22,"top1Accuracy":0.43137254901960786,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-07-26","n":63,"top1Hits":24,"top1Accuracy":0.38095238095238093,"over25Accuracy":0.6031746031746031},{"date":"2026-07-27","n":15,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.3333333333333333,"over25Accuracy":0.6},{"date":"2026-07-28","n":6,"top1Hits":4,"top1Accuracy":0.6666666666666666,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-07-29","n":7,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.42857142857142855},{"date":"2026-07-30","n":5,"top1Hits":0,"top1Accuracy":0,"over25Accuracy":0.8},{"date":"2026-07-31","n":13,"top1Hits":1,"top1Accuracy":0.07692307692307693,"over25Accuracy":0.5384615384615384}],"calibration":[{"label":"50–60%","minProb":0.5,"maxProb":0.6,"n":194,"hitRate":0.41237113402061853},{"label":"60–70%","minProb":0.6,"maxProb":0.7,"n":181,"hitRate":0.5082872928176796},{"label":"70%+","minProb":0.7,"maxProb":1.0001,"n":168,"hitRate":0.5773809523809523}],"yearMonth":"2026-07","label":"July 2026","pctModelMatchesImpliedFavorite":72.54290171606864,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeFavorite":0.7100591715976331,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeUpset":0.15181518151815182,"meanLogloss1x2Model":1.087987120364367,"meanLogloss1x2Implied":1.0003906214402905,"citationSummary":"Beathem graded 882 finished football fixtures in July 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 44.0%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 60.3%, mean Brier 1X2 0.662. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 50.8% across 181 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.","canonicalUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report/2026-07","indexUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report","methodologyUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/methodology","recordUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/predictions/record","note":"Calendar-month graded fixtures for the highest-volume model version. Research only; past performance does not guarantee future results."}