{"from":"2026-08-01","to":"2026-08-31","modelVersion":"v2.3.0","n":1069,"top1Accuracy":0.46492048643592143,"over25Accuracy":0.5790458372310571,"meanBrier1x2":0.6400071156797013,"meanBrierOver25":0.24256317506314298,"recentDays":[{"date":"2026-08-01","n":48,"top1Hits":24,"top1Accuracy":0.5,"over25Accuracy":0.5208333333333334},{"date":"2026-08-02","n":44,"top1Hits":24,"top1Accuracy":0.5454545454545454,"over25Accuracy":0.6818181818181818},{"date":"2026-08-03","n":6,"top1Hits":4,"top1Accuracy":0.6666666666666666,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-08-04","n":6,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.8333333333333334,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-08-05","n":13,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.6153846153846154,"over25Accuracy":0.5384615384615384},{"date":"2026-08-06","n":6,"top1Hits":4,"top1Accuracy":0.6666666666666666,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-08-07","n":18,"top1Hits":10,"top1Accuracy":0.5555555555555556,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-08-08","n":41,"top1Hits":25,"top1Accuracy":0.6097560975609756,"over25Accuracy":0.5365853658536586},{"date":"2026-08-09","n":55,"top1Hits":23,"top1Accuracy":0.41818181818181815,"over25Accuracy":0.6},{"date":"2026-08-10","n":15,"top1Hits":2,"top1Accuracy":0.13333333333333333,"over25Accuracy":0.4666666666666667},{"date":"2026-08-11","n":12,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":0.25,"over25Accuracy":0.3333333333333333},{"date":"2026-08-12","n":3,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":1,"over25Accuracy":0.3333333333333333},{"date":"2026-08-13","n":14,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.35714285714285715,"over25Accuracy":0.9285714285714286},{"date":"2026-08-14","n":21,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.2857142857142857,"over25Accuracy":0.6190476190476191},{"date":"2026-08-15","n":57,"top1Hits":27,"top1Accuracy":0.47368421052631576,"over25Accuracy":0.5614035087719298},{"date":"2026-08-16","n":64,"top1Hits":29,"top1Accuracy":0.453125,"over25Accuracy":0.484375},{"date":"2026-08-17","n":12,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.6666666666666666,"over25Accuracy":0.5833333333333334},{"date":"2026-08-18","n":3,"top1Hits":1,"top1Accuracy":0.3333333333333333,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-08-19","n":9,"top1Hits":4,"top1Accuracy":0.4444444444444444,"over25Accuracy":0.6666666666666666},{"date":"2026-08-20","n":7,"top1Hits":2,"top1Accuracy":0.2857142857142857,"over25Accuracy":0.5714285714285714},{"date":"2026-08-21","n":28,"top1Hits":11,"top1Accuracy":0.39285714285714285,"over25Accuracy":0.5357142857142857},{"date":"2026-08-22","n":64,"top1Hits":26,"top1Accuracy":0.40625,"over25Accuracy":0.578125},{"date":"2026-08-23","n":67,"top1Hits":29,"top1Accuracy":0.43283582089552236,"over25Accuracy":0.5074626865671642},{"date":"2026-08-24","n":17,"top1Hits":11,"top1Accuracy":0.6470588235294118,"over25Accuracy":0.5882352941176471},{"date":"2026-08-25","n":23,"top1Hits":16,"top1Accuracy":0.6956521739130435,"over25Accuracy":0.6086956521739131},{"date":"2026-08-26","n":18,"top1Hits":10,"top1Accuracy":0.5555555555555556,"over25Accuracy":0.5555555555555556},{"date":"2026-08-27","n":35,"top1Hits":21,"top1Accuracy":0.6,"over25Accuracy":0.5714285714285714},{"date":"2026-08-28","n":63,"top1Hits":27,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.6507936507936508},{"date":"2026-08-29","n":130,"top1Hits":51,"top1Accuracy":0.3923076923076923,"over25Accuracy":0.6076923076923076},{"date":"2026-08-30","n":136,"top1Hits":65,"top1Accuracy":0.47794117647058826,"over25Accuracy":0.6176470588235294},{"date":"2026-08-31","n":34,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.38235294117647056,"over25Accuracy":0.5588235294117647}],"calibration":[{"label":"50–60%","minProb":0.5,"maxProb":0.6,"n":237,"hitRate":0.45569620253164556},{"label":"60–70%","minProb":0.6,"maxProb":0.7,"n":163,"hitRate":0.5828220858895705},{"label":"70%+","minProb":0.7,"maxProb":1.0001,"n":126,"hitRate":0.6190476190476191}],"yearMonth":"2026-08","label":"August 2026","pctModelMatchesImpliedFavorite":76.93050193050193,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeFavorite":0.8043478260869565,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeUpset":0.14339622641509434,"meanLogloss1x2Model":1.0667606433801788,"meanLogloss1x2Implied":1.009683962549391,"citationSummary":"Beathem graded 1069 finished football fixtures in August 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 46.5%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 57.9%, mean Brier 1X2 0.640. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 58.3% across 163 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.","canonicalUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report/2026-08","indexUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report","methodologyUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/methodology","recordUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/predictions/record","note":"Calendar-month graded fixtures for the highest-volume model version. Research only; past performance does not guarantee future results."}