{"from":"2026-09-01","to":"2026-09-30","modelVersion":"v2.3.0","n":1490,"top1Accuracy":0.42885906040268457,"over25Accuracy":0.5590604026845638,"meanBrier1x2":0.6452515862561734,"meanBrierOver25":0.2421909474847649,"recentDays":[{"date":"2026-09-01","n":21,"top1Hits":11,"top1Accuracy":0.5238095238095238,"over25Accuracy":0.6190476190476191},{"date":"2026-09-02","n":28,"top1Hits":12,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.42857142857142855},{"date":"2026-09-03","n":23,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.34782608695652173,"over25Accuracy":0.391304347826087},{"date":"2026-09-04","n":53,"top1Hits":22,"top1Accuracy":0.41509433962264153,"over25Accuracy":0.5849056603773585},{"date":"2026-09-05","n":144,"top1Hits":64,"top1Accuracy":0.4444444444444444,"over25Accuracy":0.5486111111111112},{"date":"2026-09-06","n":121,"top1Hits":57,"top1Accuracy":0.47107438016528924,"over25Accuracy":0.5702479338842975},{"date":"2026-09-07","n":39,"top1Hits":15,"top1Accuracy":0.38461538461538464,"over25Accuracy":0.5384615384615384},{"date":"2026-09-08","n":34,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.38235294117647056,"over25Accuracy":0.6176470588235294},{"date":"2026-09-09","n":34,"top1Hits":19,"top1Accuracy":0.5588235294117647,"over25Accuracy":0.6470588235294118},{"date":"2026-09-10","n":15,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.4,"over25Accuracy":0.4666666666666667},{"date":"2026-09-11","n":59,"top1Hits":24,"top1Accuracy":0.4067796610169492,"over25Accuracy":0.559322033898305},{"date":"2026-09-12","n":155,"top1Hits":63,"top1Accuracy":0.4064516129032258,"over25Accuracy":0.5548387096774193},{"date":"2026-09-13","n":137,"top1Hits":56,"top1Accuracy":0.40875912408759124,"over25Accuracy":0.5401459854014599},{"date":"2026-09-14","n":45,"top1Hits":14,"top1Accuracy":0.3111111111111111,"over25Accuracy":0.6},{"date":"2026-09-15","n":26,"top1Hits":10,"top1Accuracy":0.38461538461538464,"over25Accuracy":0.6538461538461539},{"date":"2026-09-16","n":25,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.52,"over25Accuracy":0.44},{"date":"2026-09-17","n":14,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-09-18","n":64,"top1Hits":31,"top1Accuracy":0.484375,"over25Accuracy":0.640625},{"date":"2026-09-19","n":165,"top1Hits":64,"top1Accuracy":0.3878787878787879,"over25Accuracy":0.5757575757575758},{"date":"2026-09-20","n":143,"top1Hits":58,"top1Accuracy":0.40559440559440557,"over25Accuracy":0.5454545454545454},{"date":"2026-09-21","n":6,"top1Hits":2,"top1Accuracy":0.3333333333333333,"over25Accuracy":0.3333333333333333},{"date":"2026-09-22","n":7,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":0.42857142857142855,"over25Accuracy":0.5714285714285714},{"date":"2026-09-23","n":4,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":0.75,"over25Accuracy":0.25},{"date":"2026-09-24","n":7,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.7142857142857143,"over25Accuracy":0.5714285714285714},{"date":"2026-09-25","n":19,"top1Hits":12,"top1Accuracy":0.631578947368421,"over25Accuracy":0.7894736842105263},{"date":"2026-09-26","n":34,"top1Hits":19,"top1Accuracy":0.5588235294117647,"over25Accuracy":0.6176470588235294},{"date":"2026-09-27","n":34,"top1Hits":11,"top1Accuracy":0.3235294117647059,"over25Accuracy":0.5588235294117647},{"date":"2026-09-28","n":8,"top1Hits":3,"top1Accuracy":0.375,"over25Accuracy":0.25},{"date":"2026-09-29","n":9,"top1Hits":5,"top1Accuracy":0.5555555555555556,"over25Accuracy":0.2222222222222222},{"date":"2026-09-30","n":17,"top1Hits":10,"top1Accuracy":0.5882352941176471,"over25Accuracy":0.5882352941176471}],"calibration":[{"label":"50–60%","minProb":0.5,"maxProb":0.6,"n":103,"hitRate":0.6213592233009708},{"label":"60–70%","minProb":0.6,"maxProb":0.7,"n":17,"hitRate":0.7647058823529411},{"label":"70%+","minProb":0.7,"maxProb":1.0001,"n":0,"hitRate":null}],"yearMonth":"2026-09","label":"September 2026","pctModelMatchesImpliedFavorite":48.25222755311857,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeFavorite":0.5255292652552926,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeUpset":0.3048780487804878,"meanLogloss1x2Model":1.070497861765473,"meanLogloss1x2Implied":0.9627830236335546,"citationSummary":"Beathem graded 1490 finished football fixtures in September 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 42.9%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 55.9%, mean Brier 1X2 0.645. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 76.5% across 17 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.","canonicalUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report/2026-09","indexUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report","methodologyUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/methodology","recordUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/predictions/record","note":"Calendar-month graded fixtures for the highest-volume model version. Research only; past performance does not guarantee future results."}