{"from":"2026-10-01","to":"2026-10-31","modelVersion":"v2.3.0","n":1803,"top1Accuracy":0.4170826400443705,"over25Accuracy":0.5535219079312257,"meanBrier1x2":0.6444839958604549,"meanBrierOver25":0.24605052057043808,"recentDays":[{"date":"2026-10-01","n":9,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.6666666666666666,"over25Accuracy":0.5555555555555556},{"date":"2026-10-02","n":21,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.2857142857142857,"over25Accuracy":0.38095238095238093},{"date":"2026-10-03","n":36,"top1Hits":15,"top1Accuracy":0.4166666666666667,"over25Accuracy":0.5833333333333334},{"date":"2026-10-04","n":28,"top1Hits":10,"top1Accuracy":0.35714285714285715,"over25Accuracy":0.5714285714285714},{"date":"2026-10-05","n":10,"top1Hits":2,"top1Accuracy":0.2,"over25Accuracy":0.6},{"date":"2026-10-06","n":35,"top1Hits":20,"top1Accuracy":0.5714285714285714,"over25Accuracy":0.5142857142857142},{"date":"2026-10-07","n":19,"top1Hits":9,"top1Accuracy":0.47368421052631576,"over25Accuracy":0.5263157894736842},{"date":"2026-10-08","n":12,"top1Hits":4,"top1Accuracy":0.3333333333333333,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-10-09","n":63,"top1Hits":28,"top1Accuracy":0.4444444444444444,"over25Accuracy":0.5238095238095238},{"date":"2026-10-10","n":158,"top1Hits":63,"top1Accuracy":0.3987341772151899,"over25Accuracy":0.5506329113924051},{"date":"2026-10-11","n":142,"top1Hits":63,"top1Accuracy":0.44366197183098594,"over25Accuracy":0.6197183098591549},{"date":"2026-10-12","n":41,"top1Hits":17,"top1Accuracy":0.4146341463414634,"over25Accuracy":0.6585365853658537},{"date":"2026-10-13","n":26,"top1Hits":9,"top1Accuracy":0.34615384615384615,"over25Accuracy":0.6153846153846154},{"date":"2026-10-14","n":19,"top1Hits":7,"top1Accuracy":0.3684210526315789,"over25Accuracy":0.7894736842105263},{"date":"2026-10-15","n":43,"top1Hits":21,"top1Accuracy":0.4883720930232558,"over25Accuracy":0.6046511627906976},{"date":"2026-10-16","n":48,"top1Hits":17,"top1Accuracy":0.3541666666666667,"over25Accuracy":0.5208333333333334},{"date":"2026-10-17","n":159,"top1Hits":64,"top1Accuracy":0.4025157232704403,"over25Accuracy":0.4591194968553459},{"date":"2026-10-18","n":139,"top1Hits":60,"top1Accuracy":0.4316546762589928,"over25Accuracy":0.5683453237410072},{"date":"2026-10-19","n":35,"top1Hits":12,"top1Accuracy":0.34285714285714286,"over25Accuracy":0.5142857142857142},{"date":"2026-10-20","n":26,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.3076923076923077,"over25Accuracy":0.6538461538461539},{"date":"2026-10-21","n":11,"top1Hits":6,"top1Accuracy":0.5454545454545454,"over25Accuracy":0.8181818181818182},{"date":"2026-10-22","n":38,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.34210526315789475,"over25Accuracy":0.7105263157894737},{"date":"2026-10-23","n":64,"top1Hits":24,"top1Accuracy":0.375,"over25Accuracy":0.5},{"date":"2026-10-24","n":172,"top1Hits":71,"top1Accuracy":0.4127906976744186,"over25Accuracy":0.5232558139534884},{"date":"2026-10-25","n":131,"top1Hits":58,"top1Accuracy":0.44274809160305345,"over25Accuracy":0.5190839694656488},{"date":"2026-10-26","n":30,"top1Hits":14,"top1Accuracy":0.4666666666666667,"over25Accuracy":0.5666666666666667},{"date":"2026-10-27","n":22,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.5909090909090909,"over25Accuracy":0.6363636363636364},{"date":"2026-10-28","n":32,"top1Hits":13,"top1Accuracy":0.40625,"over25Accuracy":0.46875},{"date":"2026-10-29","n":19,"top1Hits":8,"top1Accuracy":0.42105263157894735,"over25Accuracy":0.5789473684210527},{"date":"2026-10-30","n":55,"top1Hits":21,"top1Accuracy":0.38181818181818183,"over25Accuracy":0.6},{"date":"2026-10-31","n":160,"top1Hits":70,"top1Accuracy":0.4375,"over25Accuracy":0.55}],"calibration":[{"label":"50–60%","minProb":0.5,"maxProb":0.6,"n":125,"hitRate":0.608},{"label":"60–70%","minProb":0.6,"maxProb":0.7,"n":6,"hitRate":0.8333333333333334},{"label":"70%+","minProb":0.7,"maxProb":1.0001,"n":0,"hitRate":null}],"yearMonth":"2026-10","label":"October 2026","pctModelMatchesImpliedFavorite":48.29157175398633,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeFavorite":0.5274611398963731,"top1AccuracyWhenOutcomeUpset":0.2781289506953224,"meanLogloss1x2Model":1.0690206791731043,"meanLogloss1x2Implied":0.9617158825247604,"citationSummary":"Beathem graded 1803 finished football fixtures in October 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 41.7%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 55.4%, mean Brier 1X2 0.644. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 83.3% across 6 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.","canonicalUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report/2026-10","indexUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/research/model-report","methodologyUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/methodology","recordUrl":"https://www.beathem.net/predictions/record","note":"Calendar-month graded fixtures for the highest-volume model version. Research only; past performance does not guarantee future results."}