Value picks today

Beathem value football picks for today (2026-11-09): fixtures where the model probability sits clearly above the de-vigged bookmaker price on 1X2 or Over 2.5. Ranked by largest edge. Research only — not tipster guarantees.

  1. Torreense vs União de Leiria — Draw 40% · edge +13pp
  2. Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC — Draw 37% · edge +12pp

See methodology and track record.

Value Predictions Today

Model-vs-market edges for 2026-11-09, ranked largest first. Research only — not guaranteed tips.

Torreense vs União de Leiria
Confidence 51%Value+13pp

Portugal - Segunda Liga • 20:15 • competition

Top pick
Draw 40%
Best market
União de Leiria or draw (X2) 71%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Over 2.5
46%

Market 1X2: 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.14 · xG 1.20–1.27 · BTTS 52%

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC
Confidence 52%Value+12pp

Ecuador - Liga Pro • 18:00 • competition

Top pick
Draw 37%
Best market
Mushuc Runa SC or draw (1X) 70%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Over 2.5
52%

Market 1X2: 1.66 / 3.53 / 4.65 · xG 1.48–1.40 · BTTS 58%

All predictions todayValue tomorrowTrack recordMethodology

Predictions FAQ

What is a Beathem value pick?
A value pick is a fixture where the model probability for the 1X2 top pick or Over 2.5 clears the published bookmaker price by a set edge threshold, with enough confidence. It is a research signal, not a tip.
How are value picks ranked?
Fixtures that clear the Value threshold are ranked by largest model-vs-market edge first. Confidence is shown so you can weigh strong edges against thinner samples.
Are value picks free tips?
No. They are free model research outputs. Beathem is not a bookmaker and does not place bets or pay winnings.
Where can I read methodology and track record?
Methodology: https://www.beathem.net/methodology. Recent graded results: https://www.beathem.net/predictions/record. Gamble responsibly.

Also see full FAQ, track record, fixture calendar, and tomorrow's predictions.