Monthly reports/May 2026
Beathem model report — May 2026
Beathem graded 1333 finished football fixtures in May 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 47.6%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 54.5%, mean Brier 1X2 0.634. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 57.3% across 178 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Window: 2026-05-01 → 2026-05-31 · model version v2.3.0. Highest-volume model version in the month.
Graded fixtures
1333
1X2 top-pick
47.6%
Over 2.5 side
54.5%
Mean Brier 1X2
0.634
Mean Brier Over 2.5: 0.249.
Model vs market
Where the model's top 1X2 pick lined up with the odds-implied favorite, and how top picks graded when the favorite won vs when there was an upset.
- Agreed with implied favorite
- 7363.6%
- Top-pick when favorite won
- 77.4%
- Top-pick when upset
- 16.3%
- Mean log-loss 1X2 (model / implied)
- 1.055 / 1.000
Calibration bands
When the top 1X2 probability sat in each band, how often that pick matched the result.
| Stated probability | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 308 | 51.6% |
| 60–70% | 178 | 57.3% |
| 70%+ | 124 | 57.3% |
Day-by-day
| Date | n | 1X2 hits | 1X2 hit rate | O2.5 hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 42 | 19/42 | 45.2% | 57.1% |
| 2026-05-30 | 34 | 19/34 | 55.9% | 73.5% |
| 2026-05-29 | 18 | 8/18 | 44.4% | 61.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | 3 | 3/3 | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-27 | 1 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | 2 | 1/2 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-25 | 21 | 9/21 | 42.9% | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-24 | 81 | 39/81 | 48.1% | 60.5% |
| 2026-05-23 | 67 | 32/67 | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| 2026-05-22 | 23 | 10/23 | 43.5% | 60.9% |
| 2026-05-21 | 16 | 8/16 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-20 | 14 | 6/14 | 42.9% | 64.3% |
| 2026-05-19 | 19 | 8/19 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | 23 | 8/23 | 34.8% | 52.2% |
| 2026-05-17 | 139 | 62/139 | 44.6% | 61.2% |
| 2026-05-16 | 121 | 61/121 | 50.4% | 53.7% |
| 2026-05-15 | 28 | 13/28 | 46.4% | 35.7% |
| 2026-05-14 | 22 | 14/22 | 63.6% | 40.9% |
| 2026-05-13 | 36 | 17/36 | 47.2% | 61.1% |
| 2026-05-12 | 24 | 12/24 | 50.0% | 45.8% |
| 2026-05-11 | 23 | 7/23 | 30.4% | 47.8% |
| 2026-05-10 | 89 | 41/89 | 46.1% | 51.7% |
| 2026-05-09 | 116 | 57/116 | 49.1% | 55.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 23/48 | 47.9% | 45.8% |
| 2026-05-07 | 8 | 6/8 | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | 7 | 5/7 | 71.4% | 42.9% |
| 2026-05-05 | 8 | 3/8 | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | 31 | 15/31 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 2026-05-03 | 97 | 44/97 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 2026-05-02 | 130 | 57/130 | 43.8% | 54.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 26/42 | 61.9% | 64.3% |
Machine-readable: /ai/model-report/2026-05.json