Monthly reports/June 2026
Beathem model report — June 2026
Beathem graded 329 finished football fixtures in June 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 43.5%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 56.5%, mean Brier 1X2 0.667. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 43.5% across 62 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Window: 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30 · model version v2.3.0. Highest-volume model version in the month.
Graded fixtures
329
1X2 top-pick
43.5%
Over 2.5 side
56.5%
Mean Brier 1X2
0.667
Mean Brier Over 2.5: 0.246.
Model vs market
Where the model's top 1X2 pick lined up with the odds-implied favorite, and how top picks graded when the favorite won vs when there was an upset.
- Agreed with implied favorite
- 6580.9%
- Top-pick when favorite won
- 70.0%
- Top-pick when upset
- 14.8%
- Mean log-loss 1X2 (model / implied)
- 1.091 / 0.943
Calibration bands
When the top 1X2 probability sat in each band, how often that pick matched the result.
| Stated probability | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 66 | 51.5% |
| 60–70% | 62 | 43.5% |
| 70%+ | 59 | 54.2% |
Day-by-day
| Date | n | 1X2 hits | 1X2 hit rate | O2.5 hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 11 | 7/11 | 63.6% | 63.6% |
| 2026-06-29 | 9 | 5/9 | 55.6% | 77.8% |
| 2026-06-28 | 15 | 6/15 | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| 2026-06-27 | 59 | 29/59 | 49.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-06-26 | 27 | 10/27 | 37.0% | 77.8% |
| 2026-06-25 | 5 | 3/5 | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| 2026-06-24 | 13 | 5/13 | 38.5% | 53.8% |
| 2026-06-23 | 14 | 6/14 | 42.9% | 78.6% |
| 2026-06-22 | 7 | 2/7 | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| 2026-06-21 | 16 | 8/16 | 50.0% | 62.5% |
| 2026-06-20 | 16 | 5/16 | 31.3% | 62.5% |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 | 4/9 | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 2026-06-18 | 4 | 2/4 | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | 2/7 | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | 2 | 1/2 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | 2 | 1/2 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 2026-06-14 | 16 | 7/16 | 43.8% | 50.0% |
| 2026-06-13 | 16 | 9/16 | 56.3% | 43.8% |
| 2026-06-12 | 7 | 3/7 | 42.9% | 28.6% |
| 2026-06-11 | 3 | 2/3 | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| 2026-06-10 | 8 | 3/8 | 37.5% | 75.0% |
| 2026-06-09 | 11 | 4/11 | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| 2026-06-08 | 1 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-07 | 15 | 5/15 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| 2026-06-06 | 20 | 7/20 | 35.0% | 45.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | 9 | 5/9 | 55.6% | 77.8% |
| 2026-06-04 | 1 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | 5 | 1/5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | 1 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Machine-readable: /ai/model-report/2026-06.json