Monthly reports/July 2026
Beathem model report — July 2026
Beathem graded 882 finished football fixtures in July 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 44.0%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 60.3%, mean Brier 1X2 0.662. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 50.8% across 181 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Window: 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31 · model version v2.3.0. Highest-volume model version in the month.
Graded fixtures
882
1X2 top-pick
44.0%
Over 2.5 side
60.3%
Mean Brier 1X2
0.662
Mean Brier Over 2.5: 0.243.
Model vs market
Where the model's top 1X2 pick lined up with the odds-implied favorite, and how top picks graded when the favorite won vs when there was an upset.
- Agreed with implied favorite
- 7254.3%
- Top-pick when favorite won
- 71.0%
- Top-pick when upset
- 15.2%
- Mean log-loss 1X2 (model / implied)
- 1.088 / 1.000
Calibration bands
When the top 1X2 probability sat in each band, how often that pick matched the result.
| Stated probability | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 194 | 41.2% |
| 60–70% | 181 | 50.8% |
| 70%+ | 168 | 57.7% |
Day-by-day
| Date | n | 1X2 hits | 1X2 hit rate | O2.5 hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 13 | 1/13 | 7.7% | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-30 | 5 | 0/5 | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7 | 3/7 | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| 2026-07-28 | 6 | 4/6 | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| 2026-07-27 | 15 | 5/15 | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| 2026-07-26 | 63 | 24/63 | 38.1% | 60.3% |
| 2026-07-25 | 51 | 22/51 | 43.1% | 66.7% |
| 2026-07-24 | 16 | 7/16 | 43.8% | 56.3% |
| 2026-07-23 | 13 | 5/13 | 38.5% | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-22 | 20 | 13/20 | 65.0% | 45.0% |
| 2026-07-21 | 14 | 5/14 | 35.7% | 78.6% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12 | 7/12 | 58.3% | 66.7% |
| 2026-07-19 | 18 | 11/18 | 61.1% | 72.2% |
| 2026-07-18 | 86 | 40/86 | 46.5% | 64.0% |
| 2026-07-17 | 52 | 24/52 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-16 | 16 | 9/16 | 56.3% | 56.3% |
| 2026-07-15 | 24 | 14/24 | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| 2026-07-14 | 22 | 7/22 | 31.8% | 50.0% |
| 2026-07-13 | 8 | 1/8 | 12.5% | 62.5% |
| 2026-07-12 | 42 | 21/42 | 50.0% | 71.4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 75 | 35/75 | 46.7% | 68.0% |
| 2026-07-10 | 9 | 2/9 | 22.2% | 66.7% |
| 2026-07-09 | 12 | 4/12 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 2026-07-08 | 29 | 14/29 | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 2026-07-07 | 23 | 9/23 | 39.1% | 69.6% |
| 2026-07-06 | 5 | 0/5 | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| 2026-07-05 | 29 | 11/29 | 37.9% | 72.4% |
| 2026-07-04 | 116 | 51/116 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| 2026-07-03 | 36 | 17/36 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 2026-07-02 | 13 | 7/13 | 53.8% | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-01 | 32 | 15/32 | 46.9% | 56.3% |
Machine-readable: /ai/model-report/2026-07.json