Monthly reports/August 2026
Beathem model report — August 2026
Beathem graded 1069 finished football fixtures in August 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 46.5%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 57.9%, mean Brier 1X2 0.640. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 58.3% across 163 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Window: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-31 · model version v2.3.0. Highest-volume model version in the month.
Graded fixtures
1069
1X2 top-pick
46.5%
Over 2.5 side
57.9%
Mean Brier 1X2
0.640
Mean Brier Over 2.5: 0.243.
Model vs market
Where the model's top 1X2 pick lined up with the odds-implied favorite, and how top picks graded when the favorite won vs when there was an upset.
- Agreed with implied favorite
- 7693.1%
- Top-pick when favorite won
- 80.4%
- Top-pick when upset
- 14.3%
- Mean log-loss 1X2 (model / implied)
- 1.067 / 1.010
Calibration bands
When the top 1X2 probability sat in each band, how often that pick matched the result.
| Stated probability | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 237 | 45.6% |
| 60–70% | 163 | 58.3% |
| 70%+ | 126 | 61.9% |
Day-by-day
| Date | n | 1X2 hits | 1X2 hit rate | O2.5 hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 34 | 13/34 | 38.2% | 55.9% |
| 2026-08-30 | 136 | 65/136 | 47.8% | 61.8% |
| 2026-08-29 | 130 | 51/130 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | 63 | 27/63 | 42.9% | 65.1% |
| 2026-08-27 | 35 | 21/35 | 60.0% | 57.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | 18 | 10/18 | 55.6% | 55.6% |
| 2026-08-25 | 23 | 16/23 | 69.6% | 60.9% |
| 2026-08-24 | 17 | 11/17 | 64.7% | 58.8% |
| 2026-08-23 | 67 | 29/67 | 43.3% | 50.7% |
| 2026-08-22 | 64 | 26/64 | 40.6% | 57.8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 28 | 11/28 | 39.3% | 53.6% |
| 2026-08-20 | 7 | 2/7 | 28.6% | 57.1% |
| 2026-08-19 | 9 | 4/9 | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| 2026-08-18 | 3 | 1/3 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| 2026-08-17 | 12 | 8/12 | 66.7% | 58.3% |
| 2026-08-16 | 64 | 29/64 | 45.3% | 48.4% |
| 2026-08-15 | 57 | 27/57 | 47.4% | 56.1% |
| 2026-08-14 | 21 | 6/21 | 28.6% | 61.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | 14 | 5/14 | 35.7% | 92.9% |
| 2026-08-12 | 3 | 3/3 | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| 2026-08-11 | 12 | 3/12 | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| 2026-08-10 | 15 | 2/15 | 13.3% | 46.7% |
| 2026-08-09 | 55 | 23/55 | 41.8% | 60.0% |
| 2026-08-08 | 41 | 25/41 | 61.0% | 53.7% |
| 2026-08-07 | 18 | 10/18 | 55.6% | 50.0% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6 | 4/6 | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| 2026-08-05 | 13 | 8/13 | 61.5% | 53.8% |
| 2026-08-04 | 6 | 5/6 | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| 2026-08-03 | 6 | 4/6 | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| 2026-08-02 | 44 | 24/44 | 54.5% | 68.2% |
| 2026-08-01 | 48 | 24/48 | 50.0% | 52.1% |
Machine-readable: /ai/model-report/2026-08.json