Monthly reports/September 2026
Beathem model report — September 2026
Beathem graded 1490 finished football fixtures in September 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 42.9%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 55.9%, mean Brier 1X2 0.645. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 76.5% across 17 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Window: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-30 · model version v2.3.0. Highest-volume model version in the month.
Graded fixtures
1490
1X2 top-pick
42.9%
Over 2.5 side
55.9%
Mean Brier 1X2
0.645
Mean Brier Over 2.5: 0.242.
Model vs market
Where the model's top 1X2 pick lined up with the odds-implied favorite, and how top picks graded when the favorite won vs when there was an upset.
- Agreed with implied favorite
- 4825.2%
- Top-pick when favorite won
- 52.6%
- Top-pick when upset
- 30.5%
- Mean log-loss 1X2 (model / implied)
- 1.070 / 0.963
Calibration bands
When the top 1X2 probability sat in each band, how often that pick matched the result.
| Stated probability | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 103 | 62.1% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 76.5% |
| 70%+ | 0 | — |
Day-by-day
| Date | n | 1X2 hits | 1X2 hit rate | O2.5 hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 17 | 10/17 | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | 9 | 5/9 | 55.6% | 22.2% |
| 2026-09-28 | 8 | 3/8 | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 34 | 11/34 | 32.4% | 55.9% |
| 2026-09-26 | 34 | 19/34 | 55.9% | 61.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | 19 | 12/19 | 63.2% | 78.9% |
| 2026-09-24 | 7 | 5/7 | 71.4% | 57.1% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4 | 3/4 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 2026-09-22 | 7 | 3/7 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 2026-09-21 | 6 | 2/6 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | 143 | 58/143 | 40.6% | 54.5% |
| 2026-09-19 | 165 | 64/165 | 38.8% | 57.6% |
| 2026-09-18 | 64 | 31/64 | 48.4% | 64.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | 14 | 6/14 | 42.9% | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-16 | 25 | 13/25 | 52.0% | 44.0% |
| 2026-09-15 | 26 | 10/26 | 38.5% | 65.4% |
| 2026-09-14 | 45 | 14/45 | 31.1% | 60.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | 137 | 56/137 | 40.9% | 54.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | 155 | 63/155 | 40.6% | 55.5% |
| 2026-09-11 | 59 | 24/59 | 40.7% | 55.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | 15 | 6/15 | 40.0% | 46.7% |
| 2026-09-09 | 34 | 19/34 | 55.9% | 64.7% |
| 2026-09-08 | 34 | 13/34 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 39 | 15/39 | 38.5% | 53.8% |
| 2026-09-06 | 121 | 57/121 | 47.1% | 57.0% |
| 2026-09-05 | 144 | 64/144 | 44.4% | 54.9% |
| 2026-09-04 | 53 | 22/53 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| 2026-09-03 | 23 | 8/23 | 34.8% | 39.1% |
| 2026-09-02 | 28 | 12/28 | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| 2026-09-01 | 21 | 11/21 | 52.4% | 61.9% |
Machine-readable: /ai/model-report/2026-09.json