Monthly reports/October 2026
Beathem model report — October 2026
Beathem graded 1803 finished football fixtures in October 2026 (model v2.3.0): 1X2 top-pick hit rate 41.7%, Over 2.5 side hit rate 55.4%, mean Brier 1X2 0.644. When the top pick sat at 60–70%, it hit 83.3% across 6 graded fixtures. These are model probabilities for research — not tipster guarantees; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Window: 2026-10-01 → 2026-10-31 · model version v2.3.0. Highest-volume model version in the month.
Graded fixtures
1803
1X2 top-pick
41.7%
Over 2.5 side
55.4%
Mean Brier 1X2
0.644
Mean Brier Over 2.5: 0.246.
Model vs market
Where the model's top 1X2 pick lined up with the odds-implied favorite, and how top picks graded when the favorite won vs when there was an upset.
- Agreed with implied favorite
- 4829.2%
- Top-pick when favorite won
- 52.7%
- Top-pick when upset
- 27.8%
- Mean log-loss 1X2 (model / implied)
- 1.069 / 0.962
Calibration bands
When the top 1X2 probability sat in each band, how often that pick matched the result.
| Stated probability | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 125 | 60.8% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 83.3% |
| 70%+ | 0 | — |
Day-by-day
| Date | n | 1X2 hits | 1X2 hit rate | O2.5 hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 160 | 70/160 | 43.8% | 55.0% |
| 2026-10-30 | 55 | 21/55 | 38.2% | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-29 | 19 | 8/19 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | 32 | 13/32 | 40.6% | 46.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | 22 | 13/22 | 59.1% | 63.6% |
| 2026-10-26 | 30 | 14/30 | 46.7% | 56.7% |
| 2026-10-25 | 131 | 58/131 | 44.3% | 51.9% |
| 2026-10-24 | 172 | 71/172 | 41.3% | 52.3% |
| 2026-10-23 | 64 | 24/64 | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-22 | 38 | 13/38 | 34.2% | 71.1% |
| 2026-10-21 | 11 | 6/11 | 54.5% | 81.8% |
| 2026-10-20 | 26 | 8/26 | 30.8% | 65.4% |
| 2026-10-19 | 35 | 12/35 | 34.3% | 51.4% |
| 2026-10-18 | 139 | 60/139 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 2026-10-17 | 159 | 64/159 | 40.3% | 45.9% |
| 2026-10-16 | 48 | 17/48 | 35.4% | 52.1% |
| 2026-10-15 | 43 | 21/43 | 48.8% | 60.5% |
| 2026-10-14 | 19 | 7/19 | 36.8% | 78.9% |
| 2026-10-13 | 26 | 9/26 | 34.6% | 61.5% |
| 2026-10-12 | 41 | 17/41 | 41.5% | 65.9% |
| 2026-10-11 | 142 | 63/142 | 44.4% | 62.0% |
| 2026-10-10 | 158 | 63/158 | 39.9% | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-09 | 63 | 28/63 | 44.4% | 52.4% |
| 2026-10-08 | 12 | 4/12 | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-07 | 19 | 9/19 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-06 | 35 | 20/35 | 57.1% | 51.4% |
| 2026-10-05 | 10 | 2/10 | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-04 | 28 | 10/28 | 35.7% | 57.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | 36 | 15/36 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 21 | 6/21 | 28.6% | 38.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | 9 | 6/9 | 66.7% | 55.6% |
Machine-readable: /ai/model-report/2026-10.json